Opening Weekend CFB Bet

1* FLORIDA STATE -17.5 over Oklahoma State

Florida State returns a lot.  Oklahoma State does not.

FSU returns 13 starters which includes 4 of 5 offensive linemen and the Heisman Trophy winning Quarterback.  All five offensive linemen are seniors.

Oklahoma State returns only 8 starters with only two on the offensive line and a new starting QB.  There are only two seniors on the two deeps for Oklahoma State’s offensive line.  The two deeps at wideout consist of three sophs and a junior.  The two deeps in the secondary consists of one senior who does not start.  Both safeties are sophs and both CB’s are juniors with only one returning starter in the secondary.

Tough opener for a very young Cowboys squad who struggled on defense at the end of last season allowing 33 to Oklahoma and 41 to Missouri in the bowl game.

Some Opening Weekend NFL Bets

I just put 0.25 units on every OVER in the NFL Preseason through Week 1.

In 2013, the closing total on these 17 games averaged 36.26 and went 11-6 OVER the total.

Of the 15 games so far posted for 2014, the average posted total is 36.27.

Odds makers are still putting up short numbers on these totals due to historical performances, however, my studies show that Preseason scoring has been progressing just as rapidly over the last few years as regular season scoring.  I will put that study up later this week.

Remember that the players most likely do not matter in Week 1 of the preseason.  Everybody gets to play.  So it is less about talent and more about the coaches wanting to win and most importantly implementing their systems.  Scoring is up across the board.  The average total on these openers is equivalent to the closing totals last year.   Bet em early as they most likely will go up.

Here are the following moves all to win 0.25 units.

241 OVER 32.5 NY GIANTS v BUFFALO
251 OVER 35.5 INDIANAPOLIS v NY JETS
253 OVER 37 NEW ENGLAND v WASHINGTON
255 OVER 35 SAN FRANCISCO v BALTIMORE
257 OVER 34.5 CINCINNATI v KANSAS CITY
259 OVER 37 SEATTLE v DENVER
261 OVER 36.5 DALLAS v SAN DIEGO
263 OVER 36.5 MIAMI v ATLANTA
267 OVER 35.5 TAMPA BAY v JACKSONVILLE
269 OVER 37.5 NEW ORLEANS v ST. LOUIS
271 OVER 38.5 PHILADELPHIA v CHICAGO
273 OVER 36.5 OAKLAND v MINNESOTA
275 OVER 37.5 CLEVELAND v DETROIT
279 OVER 37 GREEN BAY v TENNESSEE
281 OVER 37 HOUSTON v ARIZONA

Defending Champs Trending to OVER in the Preseason

Over the last four years, the defending Super Bowl champs are 13-3 OVER the total in the NFL Preseason.

The 2010 Saints were 4-0 OVER the total.

The 2011 Packers were 4-0 OVER the total.

The 2012 Giants were 1-3 OVER the total.

The 2013 Ravens were 4-0 OVER the total.

The defending champs averaged 25.6 points per game while allowing 21.1 pointers per game for a total of 46.7 points per game scored.  The average posted total for these 16 games was 39.3.

This year’s defending champion Seattle Seahawks were 9-7 OVER the total during that same time frame.  The Seahawks averaged a total of 24 points per game while allowing 14.9 points per game for a total of 38.9 points per game during that streak.  The average posted total for Seahawks games were 38.4.

Seattle had the best defense in the league last year and held the highest scoring offense, the Broncos, to 10 points during a preseason game and 8 points in the Super Bowl.  Those two games were the lowest output all season by the Broncos.  Can Seattle keep the OVER streak in tack for defending Super Bowl champs or will their defense reverse the trend.  Once we start seeing some lines posted in the NFL Preseason, I will take this into account.

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