Defending Champs Trending to OVER in the Preseason

Over the last four years, the defending Super Bowl champs are 13-3 OVER the total in the NFL Preseason.

The 2010 Saints were 4-0 OVER the total.

The 2011 Packers were 4-0 OVER the total.

The 2012 Giants were 1-3 OVER the total.

The 2013 Ravens were 4-0 OVER the total.

The defending champs averaged 25.6 points per game while allowing 21.1 pointers per game for a total of 46.7 points per game scored.  The average posted total for these 16 games was 39.3.

This year’s defending champion Seattle Seahawks were 9-7 OVER the total during that same time frame.  The Seahawks averaged a total of 24 points per game while allowing 14.9 points per game for a total of 38.9 points per game during that streak.  The average posted total for Seahawks games were 38.4.

Seattle had the best defense in the league last year and held the highest scoring offense, the Broncos, to 10 points during a preseason game and 8 points in the Super Bowl.  Those two games were the lowest output all season by the Broncos.  Can Seattle keep the OVER streak in tack for defending Super Bowl champs or will their defense reverse the trend.  Once we start seeing some lines posted in the NFL Preseason, I will take this into account.

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San Diego Chargers 2014 Schedule Analysis

NO FAVORS:  The schedule maker didn’t do the Chargers any favors this year.  They have three separate ridiculously tough stretches.

TOUGH STRETCH #1:  The Chargers play the late Monday Night double header game in the opening weekend at Arizona, a 10 win team from last year.  After all the emotion of a Monday Night opener, they come home in week #2 to take on the defending champion Seattle Seahawks who come into the game on 10 days rest.

TOUGH STRETCH #2: Games #6 to #8 feature three division games in 11 days including home against the Chiefs and a trip to Denver within four days.

TOUGH STRETCH #3: The entire month of December.  The Chargers open December at home vs the Patriots followed by a home against the Broncos.  Both teams were in the AFC Championship game last year.  The close out the year at San Francisco who was in the NFC Championship game and at Kansas City on the final week of the year (playoff team from last year).

MY THOUGHTS: If the Chargers make the playoffs, they will be a danger as they would have been tested down the stretch.

Oakland Raiders 2014 Schedule Analysis

ANOTHER SELL OUT:  The Raiders are a team who play in a tough division and have a passionate fan base who fill the stadium no matter how ratchet the team plays.  So to reward all of their fans, they sell out one of their home games to London.

MY THOUGHTS: The Raiders have a brutal schedule.  Not only did every team in their division make the playoffs except for them but they also have to play the NFC West which means that every team finished with a better record than they did last year.  Also, every team in the NFC West will be in a hunt for a playoff spot in 2014.  The Raiders sold one of their home games, so they only have seven games.   They have practically no chance to improve much in 2014.

Kansas City Chiefs 2014 Schedule Analysis

TOUGHEST STRETCH: Games two to six.  After opening up with the Titans, the Chiefs visit Denver before wheeling back to the other side on the country against the Dolphins.   The following week they are home against the Patriots before taking to the road again in San Francisco and San Diego.  That is four of their first six games on the road.

THE GOOD PART:  Six of their final ten games are at home which include the Seahawks and the Broncos.

POTENTIAL TRAP GAME: After the Seahawks game at home, the Chiefs travel to Oakland on a short week before getting the Broncos at home the following week.

MY THOUGHTS:  If the Chiefs can survive the first six games on their schedule, they are in decent position the rest of the way.  Like the rest of the AFC West, this division has the toughest schedule in football.